Canadian Wildfire Outlook 2026: A Deep Dive into Risks, Trends, and Preparedness

Canadian Wildfire Outlook 2026: A Deep Dive into Risks, Trends, and Preparedness

As we head into the 2026 fire season, Canada faces another year shaped by a warming climate. Environment and Climate Change Canada forecasts that 2026 will likely rank among the hottest years on record globally, with temperatures projected in the range of 1.35–1.53°C above pre-industrial levels—comparable to the record-hot years of 2023–2025. This sustained heat increases evaporation, dries fuels faster, and lengthens the fire season, raising the risk of larger, more intense wildfires across the country.

After three consecutive active seasons—including the record 2023 burns of over 14 million hectares and significant activity in 2024–2025—experts note that Canada is “overdue” for a quieter year. Wildfire scientist Mike Flannigan has called 2026 a litmus test: four busy seasons in a row would signal a troubling new normal.

Historical Context and Climate Trends

Canada’s wildfire activity has surged in recent decades. Climate change drives longer fire seasons, earlier spring starts, and later fall activity. Projections indicate the fire season could lengthen by over a month in regions like northern British Columbia and central Quebec by 2100. Warmer temperatures and drier conditions create more flammable landscapes, while a positive feedback loop emerges: fires release carbon that accelerates warming, which fuels more fires.

Key drivers include:

• Drought and fuel loads: Mountain pine beetle-killed forests in BC and Alberta remain highly flammable.
• Lightning and human ignitions: Lightning causes many remote fires; human causes dominate near communities.
• Extreme fire weather: More frequent hot, dry, windy days.

The 2025 season saw over 8.9 million hectares burned nationally by late fall, underscoring ongoing vulnerability.

Current Conditions Entering 2026

Winter 2025–2026 brought mixed precipitation. Many areas, including much of Alberta, northern BC, and the Prairies, saw above-normal snowfall (some regions 300–500% of normal in December), building a decent snowpack in places. Southern BC and parts of Alberta were drier, however.

This variability affects spring fire potential. A strong snowpack delays ignition but can lead to rapid drying once melt occurs, especially under forecasted warm spring conditions. Holdover fires—smoldering underground in peat, roots, or duff from prior seasons—pose a particular threat in BC and Alberta. These can persist through winter and flare up as early as late March in southern areas, with peak risk April–June.

Early 2026 already shows signs of concern: Alberta reported several wildfires by February amid record warmth and Chinook winds.

2026 Seasonal Outlook: What to Expect

Full summer outlooks from the Canadian Wildland Fire Information System (CWFIS) and Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre (CIFFC) typically refine in spring using CanSIPS models, but early indicators point to elevated risk:

• Western Canada (BC, Alberta, Yukon): Highest concern. Holdover fires, dry fuels in beetle-killed stands, and hot/dry forecasts create potential for an active season. Peace River, southeastern BC, central interior, Wood Buffalo, and Slave Lake areas are flagged as high-risk zones.
• Prairies and Boreal Forests: Above-normal potential if spring dries quickly after snowmelt.
• Ontario, Quebec, Atlantic Canada: More variable, but lengthening seasons and occasional extreme events increase vulnerability in traditionally lower-risk areas.
• North: Tundra and sub-Arctic regions see expanding fire activity.

Overall, a hotter-than-average year combined with any below-normal summer precipitation could push burned area above the 10-year average. Weakening La Niña influences and persistent high-pressure patterns may favor drier conditions in the west.

Deep Dive: Key Risk Factors

Holdover Fires: These “zombie fires” burn slowly underground, insulated by snow and soil, and can reignite surface fires unexpectedly. Detection is difficult—look for steam, warm ground patches, or irregular snowmelt.

Fuel Continuity and Forest Health: Decades of fire suppression have created dense fuels in some areas, while climate-stressed trees die and add to the load.

Community and Infrastructure Risk: Wildland-urban interface (WUI) growth means more homes and infrastructure in fire-prone zones. Smoke affects air quality far downwind, and fires can disrupt power, transportation, and health.

Indigenous Knowledge and Prescribed Fire: Many Indigenous communities have long used controlled burns for land management. Expanding these practices alongside modern suppression offers promising mitigation.

Preparedness and Mitigation Strategies

Governments, agencies, and communities are ramping up efforts: enhanced monitoring via satellites and CWFIS, prescribed burns, fuel management, and public education. Individuals and crews must prepare too.

A critical element is having the right wildland firefighting tools for initial attack, line construction, and mop-up. Professional-grade hand tools and nozzles make the difference in containing fires early.

Axeman.ca, a trusted Canadian supplier based in British Columbia, specializes in premium wildfire and forestry gear. They stock high-quality tools relied upon by firefighters across the country.

Key tools include:

• Council Tools Pulaski: The iconic wildland tool combines a sharp axe blade for chopping brush, small trees, and roots with a mattock (adze/hoe) end for grubbing soil and building fire lines. Its versatility makes it a staple on hotshot crews and initial attack teams.
• Council Tools McLeod: A combination rake and hoe designed specifically for constructing and maintaining fire lines. The rake side clears surface debris and litter, while the hoe digs into mineral soil to create a bare-earth barrier that stops fire spread.
• Council Tools Rhino: Developed by U.S. Forest Service Hotshots, this heavy-duty, solid-shank tool features a forged, angled blade optimized for digging in tough, rocky, or root-bound soils where standard shovels fail. It excels at rapid line construction in challenging terrain.
• Bullseye Power Nozzle: A rugged, adjustable brass nozzle trusted by wildland firefighters for over 50 years. With a simple twist, it delivers everything from a powerful straight stream (for reach and penetration) to a heavy spray or pinpoint mist—ideal for mop-up, containment, and reforestation watering. It’s known for water conservation, no leaks, durability, and long reach, making it a favorite for Canadian crews on hoses during wildfire operations.

These tools, available through Axeman.ca, equip both professional firefighters and community volunteers or landowners creating defensible space. Proper maintenance, training, and pairing with modern gear (like portable pumps or power saws) maximize effectiveness.

Other preparedness steps:

• Create defensible space (30+ feet cleared around structures).
• Prepare emergency kits and evacuation plans.
• Monitor fire danger ratings and reports via provincial wildfire services or FireSmoke.ca for air quality.
• Support local prescribed fire and forest management initiatives.

Looking Ahead

The 2026 outlook carries uncertainty—weather will ultimately dictate severity—but the underlying climate trend is clear: hotter, more volatile fire seasons are becoming the norm. Early vigilance on holdovers, strategic fuel management, and equipping responders and communities with reliable tools like those from Axeman.ca (Pulaski, McLeod, Rhino, and Bullseye nozzles) will be essential.

Stay informed through official sources: CWFIS, provincial wildfire agencies, and CIFFC. Prepare now, stay vigilant, and support efforts to build resilience. With proactive action, we can reduce impacts even in challenging years.

What are your thoughts on the 2026 outlook? Have you used any of these tools on the fireline or in preparedness? Share in the comments.

Stay safe out there.